Bond Market and Treasury
Why this is rated elevated
The 10-year Treasury yield printed 5.18% on 2026-09-24, above the 4.5% elevated threshold but below the 5.5% strained threshold. The 2s/10s spread is positive at 0.36 pts (2026-09-25), indicating a normally sloped curve rather than an inversion. Total public debt outstanding reached $40.07 trillion on 2026-09-24, and the FY2026 year-to-date deficit through August was $1.97 trillion.
Elevated: Some indicators are outside normal ranges or a known risk is developing. Core functions are unaffected. Methodology
What is this?
Bonds are how the government borrows money. The "yield" is the interest it pays.
How it's doing: Still working, but something is a little off.
About this area
The Treasury market sets the benchmark for borrowing costs across the economy. This page tracks key yields, the yield curve, and federal debt levels. The 10-year yield has moved higher through September 2026, rising from 4.96% on 2026-09-22 to 5.18% on 2026-09-24. The 2s/10s spread has widened over the same period, from 0.20 pts on 2026-09-21 to 0.36 pts on 2026-09-25. Total public debt outstanding crossed $40 trillion in August 2026 and stood at $40.07 trillion as of 2026-09-24. The fiscal year-to-date deficit through August 2026 was $1.97 trillion, with receipts of $4.85 trillion against outlays of $6.81 trillion.
Indicators
Latest readings. Changes are shown without judgment of whether up or down is better.
| Indicator | Latest |
|---|---|
10-year Treasury yield Market yield on U.S. Treasury securities at 10-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, U.S. Department of the Treasury | 5.18% |
2s/10s yield curve spread Difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields. Negative values (inversion) have historically preceded recessions. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis | 0.36pts |
Total public debt outstanding Sum of debt held by the public ($32.36T) and intragovernmental holdings ($7.71T) as of 2026-09-24. Source: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data | $40.07T |
Charts
Timeline of developments
10-year yield holds near 5.2% as curve steepens (opens original release)
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.17% on 2026-09-25 after reaching 5.18% on 2026-09-24, while the 2s/10s spread widened to 0.36 pts, its widest reading in the past week.
Sources: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisTotal public debt outstanding reported at $40.07 trillion (opens original release)
Debt to the Penny data for 2026-09-24 shows total public debt outstanding of $40.07 trillion, comprising $32.36 trillion in debt held by the public and $7.71 trillion in intragovernmental holdings.
Source: U.S. Treasury Fiscal DataFY2026 year-to-date deficit reaches $1.97 trillion through August (opens original release)
Monthly Treasury Statement data show fiscal year-to-date receipts of $4.85 trillion against outlays of $6.81 trillion, producing a deficit of $1.97 trillion through August 2026.
Source: U.S. Treasury Fiscal DataCBO released an analysis of projected deficits and debt under a scenario with higher interest rates and a scenario with a constant debt-to-GDP ratio.
Source: Congressional Budget Office
Sources and citationsWhere this info comes from
- 1.Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity (DGS10)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Accessed Sep 28, 2026.
- 2.10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (T10Y2Y)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Accessed Sep 28, 2026.
- 3.Debt to the Penny
U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data. Accessed Sep 28, 2026.
- 4.Monthly Treasury Statement: Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and the Deficit/Surplus of the U.S. Government
U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data. Accessed Sep 28, 2026.
- 5.Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates (September 2026)
U.S. Department of the Treasury. Accessed Sep 28, 2026.
- 6.CBO Publications Feed
Congressional Budget Office. Accessed Sep 28, 2026.
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