Bond Market and Treasury
Why this is rated elevated
Treasury auctions are clearing, but 10- and 30-year yields are elevated relative to the past decade and auction demand has been softer than average on longer maturities.
Elevated: Some indicators are outside normal ranges or a known risk is developing. Core functions are unaffected. Methodology
What is this?
Bonds are how the government borrows money. The "yield" is the interest it pays.
How it's doing: Still working, but something is a little off.
About this area
The Treasury market sets the benchmark for borrowing costs across the economy. This page tracks key yields, the yield curve, and federal debt levels.
Indicators
Latest readings. Changes are shown without judgment of whether up or down is better.
| Indicator | Latest |
|---|---|
10-year Treasury yield Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury | 4.52% |
2s/10s yield curve spread Difference between 10-year and 2-year yields. Negative values (inversion) have historically preceded recessions. Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury | 0.48pts |
Total public debt outstanding Source: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data | $38.9T |
Charts
Timeline of developments
30-year auction draws below-average demand
The bid-to-cover ratio came in under its six-auction average, and the auction cleared at a yield above pre-sale trading levels.
Source: U.S. Department of the TreasuryMonthly budget statement shows wider deficit
The fiscal year-to-date deficit is running above the prior year's pace, driven by interest costs.
Sources: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data, Congressional Budget Office
Sources and citationsWhere this info comes from
- 1.Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates
U.S. Department of the Treasury. Accessed Sep 27, 2026.
- 2.Debt to the Penny
U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data. Accessed Sep 27, 2026.
- 3.Monthly Treasury Statement: receipts, outlays, and deficit
U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data. Accessed Sep 27, 2026.
- 4.Monthly Budget Review
Congressional Budget Office. Accessed Sep 27, 2026.
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