Methodology
Status levels
Each tracked system receives one of five levels.
Operating within normal ranges. No significant disruptions or unusual risks.
Example: The 10-year Treasury yield sits within its five-year range and auctions clear normally.
Some indicators are outside normal ranges or a known risk is developing. Core functions are unaffected.
Example: A regional grid operator issues a voluntary conservation appeal during a heat wave.
Meaningful stress or a near-term risk of disruption. Some functions may be degraded.
Example: Government funding is set to lapse within days with no enacted appropriations.
Active, significant disruption to core functions affecting large numbers of people.
Example: Rolling blackouts affecting millions of customers across multiple states.
Data is missing, delayed, or too stale to assess.
Example: A statistical release is delayed and the most recent reading is more than two cycles old.
How levels are assigned
Topics with measurable thresholds take the most severe level triggered by their indicators, using the table below. If a required reading is missing, implausible, or older than its freshness limit, the topic is marked Unknown rather than keeping an outdated rating. A monthly figure's age counts from the first day of the month it covers, so its limit allows for the time until the next month's release. A topic can move at most one level per update unless the indicator is marked as allowing sudden changes, such as a named storm forming.
Topics without thresholds, mostly in governance and foreign affairs, are rated from the documented events in their timeline, and the rationale on the topic page names the facts that justify the level.
Section-level status (for example, Economy) is derived from its topics:
- A section is Unknown when more than half of its topics are Unknown.
- Otherwise it takes the most severe level reached by at least 25% of its topics.
- It is never more than one level below its most severe topic, so a single Critical topic makes the section at least Strained.
Thresholds by topic
The same rules the data pipeline applies. Topics not listed here are rated from documented events.
Economy
Federal Reserve
Rated from documented events.
Stock Market
- VIX volatility indexElevated ≥ 25Strained ≥ 35Critical ≥ 50
Sustained readings above 25 have historically accompanied broad market stress; above 50 is rare and associated with crises. Readings older than 5 days are treated as stale.
- Market-wide circuit breakers (YTD)Strained ≥ 1
A market-wide trading halt means prices fell far enough in one session to trigger exchange safeguards.
Bond Market and Treasury
- 10-year Treasury yieldElevated ≥ 4.5%Strained ≥ 5.5%
Long-term yields set the baseline for mortgage and business borrowing costs. Readings older than 5 days are treated as stale.
SEC and Regulation
Rated from documented events.
Foreign Investment
Rated from documented events.
Labor and Inflation
- CPI inflation (12-month)Elevated ≥ 3%Strained ≥ 5%Critical ≥ 8%
Measured against the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Readings older than 80 days are treated as stale.
- Unemployment rateElevated ≥ 5.5%Strained ≥ 7%Critical ≥ 10%
Rates well above the post-war average indicate a weakening labor market. Readings older than 80 days are treated as stale.
Critical Infrastructure
Energy Grid
- Operating reserve marginElevated ≤ 15%Strained ≤ 10%Critical ≤ 6%
Grid operators plan to keep a buffer above peak demand; thin margins raise the risk of conservation calls or outages. Readings older than 2 days are treated as stale.
- Customers without powerElevated ≥ 100,000Strained ≥ 500,000Critical ≥ 2,000,000
Outage counts well above the everyday baseline indicate a significant event. Readings older than 1 day are treated as stale.
Water
- Contiguous US in drought (D1 or worse)Elevated ≥ 20%Strained ≥ 40%
Widespread drought strains municipal supply, agriculture, and hydropower. Readings older than 10 days are treated as stale.
Transportation
- Airline on-time arrivalsElevated ≤ 70%Strained ≤ 60%
System-wide on-time performance well below the long-run average of about 78% signals widespread disruption. Readings older than 110 days are treated as stale.
Communications and Cyber
- Exploited vulnerabilities added (30-day)Elevated ≥ 15Strained ≥ 25
CISA adds a vulnerability to its catalog once exploitation is confirmed; a high count means many systems need urgent patching. Readings older than 3 days are treated as stale.
Healthcare
- Inpatient bed occupancyElevated ≥ 85%Strained ≥ 95%
Sustained occupancy above 85% limits hospitals' ability to absorb surges. Readings older than 14 days are treated as stale.
- Active drug shortagesElevated ≥ 110 drugsStrained ≥ 130 drugs
Counts drugs FDA lists as currently in shortage nationwide. The list held between about 105 and 122 from 2019 to 2022 and peaked at 138 in mid-2023, when several cancer drugs were short; it has been near 70 to 77 since 2025. Readings older than 45 days are treated as stale.
Food and Agriculture
- Food-at-home prices (12-month)Elevated ≥ 4%Strained ≥ 8%
Grocery inflation well above overall inflation affects household budgets directly. Readings older than 80 days are treated as stale.
Domestic Governance
Federal Budget and Shutdown Risk
- Days until funding lapsesElevated ≤ 30 daysStrained ≤ 7 daysCritical ≤ 0 days
A lapse in appropriations furloughs federal workers and suspends some services. Readings older than 1 day are treated as stale.
Congress
Rated from documented events.
Courts
Rated from documented events.
Elections
Rated from documented events.
Foreign Affairs and Security
Trade and Tariffs
- Average effective tariff rateElevated ≥ 10%Strained ≥ 25%
Measured against the 2–3% range that prevailed from 2000 to 2017. Readings older than 45 days are treated as stale.
Sanctions
Rated from documented events.
Conflicts Involving the US
- Reported attacks on US forces (30-day)Elevated ≥ 1Strained ≥ 10
Any attack on US personnel is tracked; repeated attacks indicate an active threat environment. Readings older than 7 days are treated as stale.
Alliances and Diplomacy
Rated from documented events.
Hazards and Environment
Severe Weather
- Active named Atlantic stormsElevated ≥ 1Strained ≥ 3
Any active named storm may threaten the coast within days. Readings older than 1 day are treated as stale.
Wildfire
- Active large firesElevated ≥ 30Strained ≥ 60Critical ≥ 100
The number of uncontained large incidents drives demand for national firefighting resources. Readings older than 2 days are treated as stale.
Seismic and Volcanic
- US earthquakes M4.5+ (30-day)Elevated ≥ 20
Counts well above the typical monthly rate can indicate an active sequence. Readings older than 2 days are treated as stale.
- Volcanoes at advisory or higherElevated ≥ 4
USGS raises alert levels when a volcano shows unrest above background. Readings older than 2 days are treated as stale.
Public Health Outbreaks
- ED visits for respiratory illnessElevated ≥ 6%Strained ≥ 10%
Share of emergency department visits; peak flu seasons typically exceed 6%. Readings older than 14 days are treated as stale.
Principles
Describe conditions, not opinions
Status levels reflect measurable conditions and scheduled risks. We avoid characterizing policies as good or bad, and changes in indicators are shown in a neutral tone because "up" is not inherently better or worse.
Primary sources first
Indicators come from official statistical agencies, regulators, and operators wherever possible, such as BLS, the Federal Reserve, EIA, CISA, and NOAA. Secondary sources are used only when no primary source exists, and are labeled as such.
Every rating is explained
Each topic page states why it has its current rating, lists the indicators that informed it, and links to every source used.
Freshness is visible
Every card and indicator shows when it was last updated. If data becomes stale, the topic is marked Unknown rather than keeping an outdated rating.
Levels of detail
- Overview: one-line summaries and headline numbers for each section.
- Section pages: a summary, key indicators, and recent developments with source links.
- Topic pages: full indicator tables, charts, a timeline, the factors affecting the area, and complete citations.