Economy
SummaryQuick take
The Economy rollup is elevated, driven by four topics flagged elevated: Federal Reserve, Bond Market and Treasury, and Labor and Inflation, alongside the section's other inputs. The FOMC raised its policy rate a quarter point to 3.75-4% on Sept 16 and pointed to elevated inflation, with the next decision Oct 28, 2026; the Fed balance sheet is $6.75T and SOFR 3.88%. The 10-year Treasury yield is 5.18%, the 2s/10s curve is positively sloped at 0.36 pts, and total public debt is $40.07T. CPI inflation held at 3.4% in August, unemployment stayed at 4.1%, payrolls rose 162,000, and real GDP growth was 1.5% annualized in Q2. The Stock Market topic is unknown-status: the S&P 500 is 7,743, the VIX 14.2, and no market-wide circuit breakers have triggered in 2026. SEC and Regulation and Foreign Investment are stable, with 13 open proposed rules, foreign Treasury holdings of $9,248.1B, a $5.86T FDI position, and 233 CFIUS notices in the latest full year.Prices and interest rates are still running warm, so the economy is marked as under some strain even though the stock market has been calm.
Headline figuresKey numbers
Labor and Inflation · CPI inflation (12-month)How much prices rose in a year
Labor and Inflation · Unemployment ratePeople looking for work
Bond Market and Treasury · 10-year Treasury yieldGovernment's cost to borrow for 10 years
Systems in this sectionWhat we're watching
6 areas tracked. Select one for full detail and citations.Tap one to learn more.
Federal Reserve
ElevatedKeep an eye on itThe FOMC raised its policy rate a quarter point to 3.75-4% on Sept 16 and pointed to elevated inflation.The Fed raised that cost a little in September because prices are still going up faster than it wants.
Fed funds target (upper bound)Cost for banks to borrow overnight
Stock Market
UnknownNot sureThe S&P 500 is near 7,743 and the VIX is around 14-16, indicating low volatility with no market-wide circuit breakers triggered in 2026.Prices are steady and investors are calm.
S&P 500Stock prices (500 big companies)
Bond Market and Treasury
ElevatedKeep an eye on itThe 10-year Treasury yield is 5.18%, the 2s/10s curve is positively sloped at 0.36 pts, and total public debt stands near $40.07 trillion.The government is paying about 5.2% interest on 10-year loans, and it owes about $40 trillion.
10-year Treasury yieldGovernment's cost to borrow for 10 years
SEC and Regulation
StableAll goodSEC enforcement and rulemaking continued on regular schedules through late September 2026, with several new proposed rules open for comment.The referee is working normally, with several new rule ideas open for public comment.
Enforcement actions (fiscal YTD)Rule-breaking cases filed this year
Foreign Investment
StableAll goodForeign holdings of Treasuries and foreign direct investment positions remain large and within recent ranges.Other countries keep investing at levels seen in recent years.
Foreign holdings of TreasuriesUS debt owned by other countries
Labor and Inflation
ElevatedKeep an eye on itAnnual CPI inflation held at 3.4% in August while unemployment stayed at 4.1% and payrolls rose 162,000.Prices are rising faster than the goal, mostly because of gas. Job growth picked up and unemployment stayed low.
CPI inflation (12-month)How much prices rose in a year
Key indicators
Federal Reserve · Fed funds target (upper bound)Cost for banks to borrow overnight
Stock Market · S&P 500Stock prices (500 big companies)
Bond Market and Treasury · 10-year Treasury yieldGovernment's cost to borrow for 10 years
Foreign Investment · Foreign holdings of TreasuriesUS debt owned by other countries
Labor and Inflation · CPI inflation (12-month)How much prices rose in a year
Recent developments
- Economy / Bond Market and Treasury
10-year yield holds near 5.2% as curve steepens (opens original release)
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.17% on 2026-09-25 after reaching 5.18% on 2026-09-24, while the 2s/10s spread widened to 0.36 pts, its widest reading in the past week.
Sources: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - Economy / Bond Market and Treasury
Total public debt outstanding reported at $40.07 trillion (opens original release)
Debt to the Penny data for 2026-09-24 shows total public debt outstanding of $40.07 trillion, comprising $32.36 trillion in debt held by the public and $7.71 trillion in intragovernmental holdings.
Source: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data - Economy / Bond Market and Treasury
FY2026 year-to-date deficit reaches $1.97 trillion through August (opens original release)
Monthly Treasury Statement data show fiscal year-to-date receipts of $4.85 trillion against outlays of $6.81 trillion, producing a deficit of $1.97 trillion through August 2026.
Source: U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data - Economy / Federal Reserve
H.4.1 shows total assets near $6.75T (opens original release)
The weekly balance sheet release reported total assets of $6,747,704 million as of Sept 23, 2026, with securities held outright of $6,471,088 million and reserve balances of $2,930,193 million.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System - Economy / Bond Market and Treasury
CBO released an analysis of projected deficits and debt under a scenario with higher interest rates and a scenario with a constant debt-to-GDP ratio.
Source: Congressional Budget Office - Economy / Foreign Investment
BEA: US liabilities to foreign residents rose in Q2 2026 (opens original release)
Second-quarter transactions increased U.S. liabilities to foreign residents by $978.9 billion. The U.S. net international investment position was –$22.42 trillion at the end of Q2 2026.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis