Food and Agriculture
Why this is rated stable
Food-at-home prices rose 2.2% over the 12 months ending August 2026, below the 4% elevated threshold. USDA's September 2026 WASDE projects corn yield at 178.5 bu/acre for 2026/27, down 2.2 bu/acre from the August forecast. Egg prices fell 23.0% year over year as HPAI detections slowed. No indicator triggered elevated or strained levels.
Stable: Operating within normal ranges. No significant disruptions or unusual risks. Methodology
What is this?
This tracks food prices and how well crops are growing.
How it's doing: Working normally.
About this area
Tracks food prices, crop outlooks, and agricultural disruptions such as animal disease outbreaks. BLS reports food-at-home prices rose 2.2% over the 12 months ending August 2026. USDA's ERS forecasts food-at-home prices will rise 2.4% for calendar year 2026. The September 2026 WASDE lowered the 2026/27 corn yield projection to 178.5 bushels per acre from 180.7 in August, with production at 15,800 million bushels. An ongoing HPAI outbreak continues to affect egg-layer flocks, though egg prices are down year over year and USDA projects higher egg production in 2026.
Indicators
Latest readings. Changes are shown without judgment of whether up or down is better.
| Indicator | Latest |
|---|---|
Food-at-home prices (12-month) Percent change in the CPI for food at home over the 12 months ending August 2026. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA Economic Research Service | 2.2% |
Projected corn yield U.S. corn yield per harvested acre projected for 2026/27 in the September 2026 WASDE. Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture | 178.5bu/acre |
Timeline of developments
ERS forecasts 2.4% food-at-home price increase for 2026 (opens original release)
USDA's Economic Research Service September 2026 Food Price Outlook forecast food-at-home prices to rise 2.4 percent in 2026 and 1.8 percent in 2027, with egg prices projected to fall 29.4 percent in 2026.
Source: USDA Economic Research ServiceSeptember WASDE lowers 2026/27 corn yield projection (opens original release)
The September 2026 WASDE projected U.S. corn yield at 178.5 bushels per harvested acre for 2026/27, down from 180.7 in the August forecast, with production at 15,800 million bushels versus 16,013 previously.
Source: U.S. Department of AgricultureBLS reports food-at-home prices up 2.2% over 12 months (opens original release)
The August 2026 CPI showed food-at-home prices unchanged over the month and up 2.2 percent over the 12 months ending August 2026; the overall CPI rose 3.4 percent over the same period.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Sources and citationsWhere this info comes from
- 1.Consumer Price Index news release
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Accessed Sep 27, 2026.
- 2.Food Price Outlook
USDA Economic Research Service. Accessed Sep 27, 2026.
- 3.World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
U.S. Department of Agriculture. Accessed Sep 27, 2026.
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